Mathematical Foundations of V&V Pre-pub NAS Report

A while back I mentioned an interesting looking study on the Mathematical Foundations of Validation, Verification and Uncertainty Quantification. I was just alerted to the pre-publication version available on the National Academies Press site.

Section 2.10 presents a case study for applying VV&UQ methods to climate models. The introductory paragraph of that section reads,

The previous discussion noted that uncertainty is pervasive in models of real-world phenomena, and climate models are no exception. In this case study, the committee is not judging the validity or results of any of the existing climate models, nor is it minimining the successes of climate modeling. The intent is only to discuss how VVUQ methods in these models can be used to improve the reliability of the predictions that they yield and provide a much more complete picture of this crucial scientific arena.

As noted in the front-matter, since this is a pre-print it is still subject to editorial revision.

Empirical Imperatives

From Climate Resistance:

There is a belief that you can simply read imperatives from ‘the evidence’, and to organise society accordingly, as if instructed by mother nature herself. And worse still, there is reluctance on behalf of many engaged in the debate to recognise that this very technocratic, naturalistic and bureaucratic way of looking at the world reflects very much a broader tendency in contemporary politics. To point any of these problems out is to ‘deny the science’. ‘Science’, then, is a gun to the head.

Shrinking the Sceptics